Naval posture: US CENTCOM confirms USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups, with escorts, positioned in Arabian Sea and approaches to Persian Gulf. Additional B-52s and B-1s on alert at Diego Garcia; F-35 rotations through Al Udeid sustained. Tanker support enables continuous air presence over Strait of Hormuz.
Trump address: Delivered to joint session last night, 2100 EST. Official full transcript not yet posted on whitehouse.gov or presidency.ucsb.edu sites. Standard delay in effect; expect release within next 24–48 hours. Video archived on C-SPAN and network streams. Press pools and wires report Iran segment focused on naval deployment and nuclear demands. Trump framed Tehran’s choices starkly, stressing last opportunity for deal or facing consequences. No fresh explicit deadline stated.
Geneva track: Indirect talks (Oman-mediated) recessed after recent round. Third session scheduled Thursday. Iranian side describes sessions frank; no joint statement. US officials note unproductive elements. Tehran reiterates readiness for diplomacy but firm defense posture if attacked.
Indicator watch:
• Strait transit: Routine commercial flow; no elevated IRGC small-boat activity in last 12 hours.
• Proxy activity: Iraqi militias quiet; no US-position attacks claimed since 22 February.
• Oil: Brent near $89, holding war-risk premium.
• Tehran: Supreme Leader remarks anticipated soon; expected rejection of US terms.
• Markets: Aggregate contracts price ~38% chance of US action before 1 April.
Assessment: De-escalation window tightens to 48–72 hours around Geneva round. Naval presence provides leverage; absence of Iranian concessions likely pushes kinetic risk toward 50%+ for limited strikes on nuclear/missile sites. Broader conflict (Hormuz disruption, proxy escalation, Israeli role) remains possible but lower-probability path.
Next markers: Official transcript; Geneva readout; Supreme Leader content; satellite/IRGC movements; oil spikes.
Stand by
